Should you bet low on high odds or high on low odds
Posted by: Mitko Atanasov in Jan, 2010
Is it really a good idea?
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Should you bet low on high odds or high on low odds? Betting on low odds requires a greater risk if you wish to make a decent profit. Backing a highly favoured team against one of the league’s worst is not going to help in your quest to score a handsome return. In fact, you can even lose your entire bankroll in the long-term – discover why below.
Drawdown is a term used to define the amount of money you risk and lose on a bet. For example, let’s say you bet £10 and lose £5. To recover that 50% loss, you need to make a 100% gain on your next bet to get back to £10.
Games with low odds will always require more victories to help you make up for lost bets. Below are some examples of the profit you need to make after various losses:
10% loss -> 11% profit to break even
20% loss -> 25% profit to break even
50% loss -> 100% profit to break even
80% loss -> 400% profit to break even
90% loss -> 900% profit to break even
Drawdown Matters
Drawdown is worth understanding because backing low odds like 1.10 or 1.20 will require you to stump up larger bets just to make a healthy profit. For example, a gigantic £100 bet on a 1.10 home victory will give you a profit of just £10. The risk is simply too great for a meagre reward.
Breaking even with a £100 stake would require 10 successful bets, and everybody knows that picking 10 consecutive winners is highly unlikely for anyone. For example, a successful tipster will often maintain a 50-60% success rate. There is never a sure thing in football betting, and that’s why low odds are an illusion.
The superior option is to back a game with higher odds. For example, sports betting sites will often provide approximate 3.00 odds for a draw. Winning with the £100 stake would result in £200 profit. And you would only need to stake £5 if you wanted to match the £10 profit from backing a £100 winner at 1.10.
Being able to stake just 5% of the £100 stake will give you the opportunity to make many more bets to try and earn much better returns. Winning on just seven of 20 £5 bets could be enough for you to break even. That 35% success rate is much more realistic than attempting to maintain 100% on low odds.
Many football fans are drawn to backing low odds because they feel as if they are gaming the system. However, the strategy is one that requires fans to risk pretty much their entire stake on every bet. This boom or bust strategy can lead to some crushing losses that can suck all enjoyment from the experience.
Winning all of your bets is highly unlikely. Just stick with picking larger odds and you can maintain your bankroll by winning 30-35% of the time. You can find suitable odds by visiting bet365, a sportsbook that covers competitions and markets from all over the world.
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Category: Football Betting
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